China : the sleeping giant has awakened and is walking in the world with an attitude!

Submitted by Jay on Fri, 2005-07-01 14:05.

Over the Easter weekend hundreds of thousands of people marched through the streets of Taipei, the capital of Taiwan to protest against an anti-secession law recently enacted by the Chinese government. The controversial law, passed earlier in March is self-fulfilling, in that the Peoples Republic of China grants permission to itself to use "non-peaceful" means to stop any move or action by Taiwan (the Republic of China) towards "independence." There is no mention of, or regard for the United Nations, international law, alliances with anyone or world opinion.

For many in the business world this is either beyond comprehension, or so odd that it is simply dismissed as so much political rhetoric. The reality isn't internal party bombast or a harangue for the masses. It is the combination of communist dogma and cultural doctrine that most westerners have a hard time getting their minds around.

The U.S. administration seemed genuinely stunned by the Chinese government actually pushing the anti-secession law through the national people's congress and declaring it to the world. A White House spokesperson described the law as "unhelpful" while warning about China's "significant" military growth. The U.S. state department also was quick to criticize the law, also declaring it "unhelpful."

Unhelpful is a very diplomatic term to use considering U.S. legislation, the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, obliges us to resist any use of force by China against Taiwan, and additionally to provide Taiwan a means of defense. It is also a cautiously soft term considering China has warned both the U.S. and Japan that it will not tolerate inclusion of Taiwan in any regional security alliance or other form of three-way security co-operation, stating that putting Taiwan directly or indirectly into the scope of U.S.-Japanese security co-operation would be encroachment on China's sovereignty and interference in China's internal affairs.

Back 25 years ago when China started reforming its economy and opening itself to the world, its governments insistence that Taiwan is its territory and that it must eventually be reunited with greater China could be passed off as an old doctrine of a communist party in transition, and that it was a demand that would either pass into memory as business interests overran old standing territorial claims, or would be resolved peacefully by negotiating with a democratized communist regime.

What has failed to be considered, in our humble opinion, are two facts. First, the Peoples Republic of China is the last great communist state (along with Cuba and Vietnam) governed by dogmatic doctrine, and that its leaders sit at the top of a totalitarian regime. True, the Chinese government has realized the economic power of dealing with the capitalist states of the world, and in adopting the free-market economic principals and practices that have turned it from a sleeping giant into the world's fastest growing global economic powerhouse. However, it is still the totalitarian government of a communist state.

Second, Chinese history and culture are driving its totalitarian government to regain what it believes is its rightful place in the world. The BBC News website, http:/news.bbc.co.uk has run a special series of articles by Paul Reynolds, World Affairs correspondent that do a great job of explaining this in more detail. In brief, the Chinese people truly believe that greater China is the center of the world, and their rulers regard themselves as supreme in their world.

When the communists took power in 1949 they embraced the doctrine that historically China was the pre-eminent power in its region of the world, as far as it could extend its influence, until in the 1840's when a century of humiliation began with the British Empire encroaching on China. What is happening now with the build-up of Chinese economic power and its increasing military strength is its government's ability to resume its role as a world power and make up for the humiliations of the past.

For the first time in modern history, China is having an impact on people all around the world. Look around your household or any retail store, and you will find goods made in China. China's need for raw materials to feed its economic engine have made it one of the largest consuming countries in the world, and accordingly one of the largest customers for raw materials of all types including oil.

So what does all this mean to your business? What sort of China will you be dealing with going forward and will China soon become a global superpower capable of reducing the power and influence of the U.S. in Asia?

One of the experts on China employed by the BBC is Dr. Steven Tsang of St. Anthony's College, Oxford. He points out that China is patient, as evidenced by waiting for Hong Kong to come back into greater China. China is also determined, and the current communist government will not permit an independent Taiwan. The inference is clear - at some point in the future, as long as the current communist regime rules China, Taiwan, like Hong Kong will be folded back into greater China. This begs the question of when in the future?

According to Dr. Tsang, China will not be in a position to exert world influence for many years. " China is a major economic power, no question. It would like to be seen as a rising power and one which rises in a peaceful and responsible way. Its diplomacy has been wonderfully effective in presenting that," he reports. He goes on to state that China "...is not a world power. China does not have the capacity of being a global power for 20 years."

The Chinese military build-up is directly related to Taiwan, and a Chinese Defense White Paper published in December 2004 stated: "We will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China through whatever means. Should the Taiwan authorities go so far as to make a reckless attempt that constitutes a major incident of ' Taiwan independence,' the Chinese people and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost."

The U.S. is stuck in between this kind of tough talk from China and its obligation to help Taiwan defend itself. China is about 20 years away from being a global power that can actually challenge the U.S. and make good on its threats, and in any case, Dr. Tsang is of the opinion that China would prefer to subdue Taiwan by the threat of force, not by the actual use of force. He makes the point that: "Chinese military philosophy is the same today as it was 2,000 years ago. It is to win without fighting." For those of you who want to explore this philosophy further we recommend Sun Tzu on the Art of War.

This leads to a final question for your business. How much longer can the present hybrid communist-capitalist system that has emerged since China started its economic reforms 25 years ago last?

"I believe it will collapse one day," says Dr. Tsang, who goes on to offer the opinion that: "The Communist Party cannot survive for another 30 years." Further, Dr. Tsang believes that: "What emerges could be a different, democratic China. Then the old mentality of being the premier power will disappear. A benign China could become a reality."

From a business planning standpoint you have this economic giant, China, who the bicycle business and the sporting goods industry depends on for product production and supply, that will probably bring Taiwan, an equally important source of product innovation and supply, and more importantly management of the majority of the mainland Chinese product sources, into its political sphere, like it has Hong Kong, sometime over the next 20-years. The likelihood of this being done peacefully is high. Of equal importance is probable change in the current dogmatic communist government to a form more democratic in nature sometime over the next 30 years, likely influenced by closer ties with Taiwan, or its actually absorbing its second democratic society into greater China.

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Mon, 2010-05-03 07:40

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Sun, 2010-05-02 04:15

A good book is the best of friends, the same today and forever. Life lies on sports,the Nike as one of well known footwear brand introduced Nike Air Max Shoes for public.The Nike Air Shoes as one of classic Nike shoes deliverys great comfort and durability.We are pressional Nike Air Max Sale,we introduce you Air Max 2010 for you as it is the latest Nike running shoes.You can aslo find high quality and low price Nike Air Max 2009 on my website.The 2010 as the 20th-year celebration of Air Max 90,you can find it hot on sale these days.The Nike Air Max 2010 as the combination of Nike would be one good choice for you.

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